A strong magnetic storm of the G3 level (KR 7) was supposed to collapse to Earth in the morning of March 23. But so far this has not happened. Is it to wait for her in the near future or the threat has already passed? The answer to these questions is already known. It was presented today by the Laboratory of Solar Astronomy Iki RAS and the ISF of the SB RAS.
Why, instead of a night storm on the night of March 22 to 23 with the maximum magnetic storm score in the morning, was the magnetosphere just indignant?
The forecast this time did not ask
It turns out that the clouds of plasma, thrown out by the sun, reached our planet with a daily delay.
Astronomers state: “To the ground, delayed exactly for exactly a day, compared to the forecast, the masses of substances, thrown out by the sun in the evening of March 21, came. In general, the calculation of the plasma movement this time was somehow not particularly set: the actual transit time was 56 hours against the predicted 32 hours, that is, the error was 75 %. ”
It’s all about the density of the interplanetary environment
What is the reason for such a significant miss in time? Forecasts are made on the basis of models that take into account the explosions in the sun, plasma emissions and its movement towards the earth.
“It is evident that the errors were at the level of the Cone model, which greatly overestimated the initial ejection speeds,” experts say the laboratories of the solar astronomy of the IKI RAS and the ISF of the SB RAS, “and at the level of the Enliil model, which, when calculating the time of propagation of the plasma, did not take into account the high density of the interplanetary environment (gas between the lands and the Sun, the last day is about 10 times denser than more densely more dense Norms) “.
They especially emphasize the importance of the latter factor: because of it, the solar cloud reached the earth, having lost its speed almost completely-it was braided by an unusually dense interplanetary environment.
Will there be more or not?
And the main forecast for us about whether there will be a strong magnetic storm or not.
“The previous forecast for the storm of the G3 level at the moment has completely lost its relevance,” experts say. – The maximum level of disturbances today is expected so far no more than G1 (weak storm). The last 6 hours, geomagnetic disturbances (yellow level) are observed. It does not have something more detailed to write something more detailed-with current speeds, the event turned into completely ordinary. ”
That is, now meteo -sensitive people can be relaxed. This time the earth was lucky.
Source: aif.ru
